Regime Shifts Database 1.0



Juan C. Rocha

Forest to savanna

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Coral transitions

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Purpose

Critical research gaps

RS

Human-centered operational definition:

Large, persistent (and usually abrupt) shifts in the set of ecosystem services produced by a SES” —Oonsie Biggs

Andersen, J. et al. Trends Ecol Evol. (2009).

Abruptness affects the capacity to adapt to changes

Human-centered operational definition:

Large, persistent (and usually abrupt) shifts in the set of ecosystem services produced by a SES” —Oonsie Biggs

Foley, J et al. Science (2005)

Abruptness affects the capacity to adapt to changes

Criteria for selecting regime shifts

RSDB

Database Structure

Database Structure

rsdb

Regime shift Analysis framework

Biggs, et al. 2018. Ecology & Society

Step 1: Define the system

Identify a relevant (social-ecological) system

Step 2: Identify different regimes

As reported in the literature

Step 3: Identify key ecosystem services

associated with each regime & stakeholder groups that benefit from them

  • Forest
    • Carbon sequestration
    • Game (hunting)
    • Timber
    • Species biodiversity
    • Conservation & tourism
    • Sacred places
    • Mining (minerals)

Step 4: Identify feedbacks

Step 5: Identify drivers

“Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem” – MEA, Nelson 2006

Step 5: Identify drivers

Uruguay 2000 - 2015 trade5 trade6

Step 5: Identify drivers

Paraguay 2000 - 2015 trade3 trade4

Step 6: Identify management options

  1. Managing deforestation
  2. Managing fragmentation
  3. Managing fire (natural / anthropogenic)
  4. Managing herbivores

Step 7: Other useful information

RS

Basic comparative analysis

Basic comparative analysis

Studies that used RSDB

Caveats

  • Based on literature review – biased by what has been studied monster
    • More studies in aquatic systems
    • Under reporting in developing/low population areas
    • Impacts on ecosystem serives and human well-being often not reported
  • Definitions change from field to field
  • Under representation of social dynamics
  • Science is slow and contested
  • But there is demand for regime shift assessments (IPCC, IPBES, Arctic Council, CBD, European environmental agency)

Regime Shifts dabatase 2.0

rsdb

Break

See you back in 10 mins

Assignment

Causal diagrams

CLDs are a technique to map out the feedback structure of a system” – J. Sterman 2000

Gracias | Tack

Questions?


email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se

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