Forest to savanna
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems
Coral transitions
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems
Human-centered operational definition:
“Large, persistent (and usually abrupt) shifts in the set of ecosystem services produced by a SES” —Oonsie Biggs
Andersen, J. et al. Trends Ecol Evol. (2009).
Abruptness affects the capacity to adapt to changes
Human-centered operational definition:
“Large, persistent (and usually abrupt) shifts in the set of ecosystem services produced by a SES” —Oonsie Biggs
Foley, J et al. Science (2005)
Abruptness affects the capacity to adapt to changes
Criteria for selecting regime shifts
Step 1: Define the system
Identify a relevant (social-ecological) system
Step 2: Identify different regimes
As reported in the literature
Step 3: Identify key ecosystem services
associated with each regime & stakeholder groups that benefit from them
- Forest
- Carbon sequestration
- Game (hunting)
- Timber
- Species biodiversity
- Conservation & tourism
- Sacred places
- Mining (minerals)
- …
Step 4: Identify feedbacks
Step 5: Identify drivers
“Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem” – MEA, Nelson 2006
Step 5: Identify drivers
Uruguay 2000 - 2015 
Step 5: Identify drivers
Paraguay 2000 - 2015 
Step 6: Identify management options
- Managing deforestation
- Managing fragmentation
- Managing fire (natural / anthropogenic)
- Managing herbivores
Basic comparative analysis
Basic comparative analysis
Studies that used RSDB
- 2010
- 2011
- 2012
- Tshimpanga, J.M. A regime shift analysis of poverty traps in sub-Saharan Africa: Identifying key feedbacks and leverage points for change. Masters thesis, Uppsala University, Sweden
- de Boer, F.W. Social-Ecological Traps and Agricultural Involution. BSc Thesis. University College Utrecht, The Netherlands and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden
- Hammond, C. Impacts of Agriculturally-driven Regime Shifts on Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being. Masters thesis, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Ospina, D. Is cropland-dominance in landscapes an alternate social-ecological regime?: An empirical exploration of patterns in global cropland cover data. Masters thesis, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
- 2015
- Rocha, JC. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene. PhD thesis in Sustainability Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
- Rocha, J., Yletyinen, J., Biggs, R., Blenckner, T. & Peterson, G. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 20130273. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0273
- Rocha, J. C., Peterson, G. D. & Biggs, R. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience. PLoS ONE 10, e0134639
Caveats
- Based on literature review – biased by what has been studied monster
- More studies in aquatic systems
- Under reporting in developing/low population areas
- Impacts on ecosystem serives and human well-being often not reported
- Definitions change from field to field
- Under representation of social dynamics
- Science is slow and contested
- But there is demand for regime shift assessments (IPCC, IPBES, Arctic Council, CBD, European environmental agency)
Regime Shifts dabatase 2.0
Break
See you back in 10 mins
Causal diagrams
“CLDs are a technique to map out the feedback structure of a system” – J. Sterman 2000
